As Singapore goes to the polls today, the result is not in doubt.  The People’s Action Party (PAP) will win an overwhelming majority, just as it has in every previous election since the founding of the Republic of Singapore in 1965.  Indeed, it first came to prominence with a landslide victory in elections in 1959, after which it immediately made Singapore a self-governing state within the British Commonwealth.  Lee Kuan Yew, the city state’s long-serving former Prime Minister and current Mentor Minister will once again, at the age of 87, be elected as an MP.  His son, Lee Hsien Loon, will also return for another term as Prime Minister, while many other familiar PAP faces will continue to dominate Singaporean politics for the next five years and, in all probability, beyond.

So, if this election is so predictable, why has it been described by some observers, such as Bridget Walsh, an associate professor of politics at the Singapore Management University, as “arguably the most competitive election in Singapore’s history”?  After all, given that GDP grew at 14.5% last year, despite the financial crisis that buffeted most of the world, and that Singapore enjoys prosperity that is the envy of many countries around the globe, there would seem little to complain about.

 Nevertheless, some issues are stirring Singapore’s 2.2 million voters.  Immigration is becoming an issue, as it is across the developed world, with approximately one third of the Singaporean population being composed of foreigners.  In addition, more prosaic issues such as inflation, which as of March 2011 was reported to be running at 5%, and house prices are also causing some to consider the merits of alternative, smaller parties, six of which are challenging the PAP behemoth in this election.  Young voters, in particular, also seem to be questioning some of the PAP’s hardline policies and seeking to balance the PAP in Parliament.

Many such voters will also be voting for the first time as the PAP is being forced to contest 82 of 87 Parliamentary seats, compared to the 47 of 84 seats they had to compete in, in 2006.  Such factors are combining to ensure that election rallies are well attended, with the main opposition group, the Workers’ Party, claiming to enjoy a turnout of 40,000 at a recent rally.  Such numbers have led some to postulate that this election might be a ‘watershed’ moment in Singaporean politics and that the time for a change has come.  While such enthusiasm may be ill-founded, it does seem that the political arena is shifting somewhat as opposition parties mount direct attacks on the PAP and contest more seats than ever.

Perhaps the strongest evidence that things are changing is that the PAP seems rattled to such an extent that even Lee Kuan Yew has warned voters of the consequences they might face by voting against the PAP, stating that the electorate can expect the PAP to look after PAP constituencies first.  Those constituencies which might dare to vote against the PAP would, in his words, have “five years to live and repent.”  Whether such provocative statements will cause a backlash against the PAP remains to be seen.

 In conclusion, this election has never been about a change of power.  The PAP will win handsomely.  Its vote, however, has shown signs of declining.  For example, it fell from 75.3% to 66.6% between the elections of 2001 and 2006.  If voters award even one Group Representation Constituency (GRC) – a block which can return up to 6 MPs – to an opposition party, this would represent a huge shock to the PAP.  To this end, the Workers’ Party is concentrating its efforts on a solitary GRC, Aljunied, putting up its top representatives as candidates.  If they do win this GRC, they could also evict George Yeo, the foreign minister.  For the first time ever in Singaporean politics, the PAP will have to fight for its seats.