Japan may drop the F-35 as its next fighter

Due to a combination of delays, rumoured poorer than expected performance and an ever-increasing price tag, it has been reported that Japan is considering dropping the F-35 as its next-generation fighter.

The most likely alternative is said to be the F/A-18 Super Hornet.  The Eurofighter was also under consideration as of April, but was thought to be the third choice because Japan’s Self Defence Forces prize co-operation and co-ordination with the U.S. military.

Japan had earlier expressed its interest in acquiring the F-22 Raptor, but such hopes were frustrated by the export ban placed on the jet and its subsequent cancellation on cost grounds.

The final decision is expected to be announced toward the end of 2011 and will see Japan replace its existing F-15s and F-4s.  The F/A-18 Super Hornet would certainly be a cheaper – and combat tested – option than the F-35 which has seen its unit cost balloon to $122 million, roughly double the 2001 estimated price.

In addition, what this means for Japan’s indigenous Shinshin (Spirit) fighter remains unclear.  Originally conceived as a back-up to the purchase of the F-22, the Shinshin project took on greater urgency following the F-22 export ban. Since 2009, Japan has invested US$500 million in its development, though some reports have suggested that, in the wake of the tsunami, expensive military procurement programmes may be one area considered ripe for cuts by Japanese politicians.  Given that the Japanese Defence Ministry has estimated that the cost of the project will run to US$100 billion – compared to the US$60 billion Raptor project – such an outcome is extremely feasible.

It should, however, be noted that Japan traditionally pays more for its self-developed military equipment due to high material costs and small production figures given Japanese regulations prohibiting arms exports. Such factors conspire to ensure that Japan typically pays at least twice as much as the U.S for weapons systems.

While the Shinshin could give the Japanese air force an edge over such regional competitors as Russian and, in particular, China, off the shelf U.S. designed jets such as the moderately stealthy F-15 Silent Eagle or Super Hornet would most likely ensure continued parity for the foreseeable future.