Australia has ordered 58 F-35 fighters.

The Abbot government’s decision to order an additional 58 Joint Strike Fighters at a cost of $12.4 billion, raising the number on order to 72, has brought Australia close to its original target of a fleet of around 100 F-35s.  This order is Canberra’s largest defence purchase to date (the price-tag attached to Australia’s future submarine will eclipse it by a considerable margin) and will ensure that the RAAF continues to enjoy a capability edge in its region.

It’s not all clear skies, though.  The JSF program has been bedevilled by cost overruns, technical difficulties and allegations that China has acquired some of its technical specifications, allowing Beijing to rapidly develop its J-20 stealth fighter, China’s own attempt at building a 5^th generation tactical aircraft.  Nevertheless, the F-35 is the only feasible 5^th generation fighter available to Australia.  While Canberra could have decided to purchase additional F-18 Super Hornets, doing so would have risked falling behind the regional standard in coming decades.

What is striking about this procurement, however, is the number of airframes Canberra intends to purchase.  When the Howard government announced that Australia would participate in the F-35 program, it suggested that Australia would purchase around 100 aircraft.  While the country retains the option to buy additional jets, doing so may prove difficult given the competing demands facing Australia’s uncertain fiscal outlook.

This means that the RAAF will operate a relatively small fleet of tactical aircraft.  Exacerbating this issue is the fact that due to standard maintenance cycles and other unexpected issues, only some of these aircraft will be available for duty at any given time.  While aircraft availability would rise significantly in wartime because finding the required resources would be considered a key priority, the number of available aircraft would remain below 72 and could fall sharply when combat losses are factored in.

This reduction in the number of aircraft operated by the RAAF is an ongoing trend and is mirrored in air forces around the world.  As aircraft become more capable and expensive, states have chosen to operate fewer jets.  Nevertheless, while current aircraft are more capable than their predecessors and can therefore offer superior capability despite their fewer numbers, the fact remains that superior numbers have a virtue of their own.  After all, an aircraft can only be in one place at a time, an air force is likely to suffer losses in combat and the more airframes available, the more ordnance can be fired at an opponent.  In addition, the greater the number of aircraft a country operates, the greater the number of aircraft – all things being equal – an opponent will require to achieve air superiority.

Due to the phenomenal complexity of contemporary fighter aircraft, however, not to mention the concomitant expense, the number of countries able to design, build and deploy tactical jets is much reduced and will likely continue to fall.  The United States’ F-22 program was discontinued due to the expense of the aircraft while the F-35 and European Typhoon have been funded by an international consortium of countries.

This leads to three conclusions.  First, states will be increasingly reluctant to risk their fighter jets in combat.  They will represent such a spectacular investment of national resources that in the future states will only employ them against opponents with relatively poor air defence capabilities.  They will be used against peer competitors only as a last resort.

Secondly, if the current trends of increasing complexity and expense continue, the operation of cutting-edge fighter jets may be beyond the budgets of all but the wealthiest of states.  Middle and minor powers may conclude that their military budgets can be better spent on other platforms.

Thirdly, foremost among such platforms will be armed drones.  As UAV technology matures, it is likely that drones will become increasingly combat-capable.  If so, the F-35 may be the last manned tactical aircraft flown by an Australian pilot.