Category Archives: Singapore

Lunch with Singapore’s PM

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Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister of Singapore

On Friday 12 October, I had the privilege of attending an Asia Society lunch hosted by Lee Hsien Loong, Prime Minister of Singapore, at the Shangri La Hotel in Sydney. (Sometimes I really suffer for this blog)

In his remarks, the Prime Minister hailed the warm and increasing ties between his country and Australia.  He also highlighted the positive aspects of globalisation while noting that it has impacted negatively on job security and created increasing income gaps.

Nevertheless, the Premier was generally positive about Asia’s trajectory which is inextricably linked to China’s continued re-emergence on the world stage.  While the Premier stated that he believes a successful China will be positive for both the region and the world, he did acknowledge that managing the strategic consequences of China’s rise represents a major challenge for the international system.

The existing order does not have the luxury of slowly adapting to this changing order; it is taking place swiftly and, argued Lee, it will demand restraint and wisdom from the major powers in the region, particularly Washington.

Appealing to his audience, the Prime Minister, echoing the calls of such strategists as Hugh White, called upon Australia – an enthusiastic ally of the U.S. and a key Chinese trading partner – to contribute toward a peaceful shift in Asia’s strategic environment.

Despite these positive words, Singapore remains concerned about China’s rise.  It has agreed to host the U.S. Navy’s new Littoral Combat Ships, while in his address the Premier acknowledged that ASEAN integration remains a work in progress, demanding patience and political will, in a seemingly oblique reference to Cambodia’s recent obstruction, at Beijing’s behest, of an ASEAN joint communiqué on the South China Sea.

Whatever the future holds, it is, as Mr. Lee stated, increasingly difficult for governments to look 10 or 20 years into the future, but Singapore seems reasonably well placed to take advantage of the continuing shift of economic weight from West to East.

The 2011 Shangri-La Dialogue

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Shangri-La Dialogue member countries

 

June 5th saw the conclusion of the 2011 Shangri-La Dialogue.  Hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Singapore, the three day event brought together Defence Ministers and military figures from the Asia Pacific region.  What, then, were the main talking points of the weekend?

Perhaps predictably, the situation in the South China Sea dominated discussion.  Many countries, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines, are increasingly concerned by what they consider to be China’s belligerent behaviour in the region.  Vietnam points to cases of its fishing fleet being harassed by Chinese naval vessels.  More recently, May 26th saw a confrontation which allegedly ended with a Vietnamese survey ship’s seismic cables being cut by a Chinese vessel as it conducted an oil and gas exploration mission.

This dispute provoked protests in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City as Vietnamese expressed their anger, though it is unclear whether the protests were encouraged by the government.  While the Vietnamese government claims the survey ship was operating deep in its territorial waters and called the incident a “serious violation of Vietnam’s sovereignty”, the Chinese deflected criticism by arguing that Vietnamese oil and gas operations “undermined China’s interests and jurisdictional rights”.

This incident illustrates the potential for discord in the South China Sea, a situation exacerbated by the multitude of competing territorial claims held by such nations as China,Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.  The Spratly Islands, for example, are contested by all of the countries named above and are thought to be resource rich.  Ownership of the Paracel Islands, held by China, is also a matter of contention as Vietnam, which was evicted from the Islands by China in 1974, still claims ownership.

China, for its part, struck a more conciliatory note at the conference than it has been want to do when facing criticism from its maritime neighbours.  General Liang Guanglie, China’s Minister for National Defence, strongly reiterated China’s desire for a peaceful rise, stating that Beijing does “not intend to threaten any country with the modernization of our military force”. China, argued Liang, has no desire to seek hegemony in the region.  He painted China’s military budget, which is set to rise by an official 12.7% this year, as a natural improvement of its military equipment which, he highlighted, consists of “mainly second-generation weapons”.

Other countries in the region, however, remain unconvinced and continue to hedge against China’s military development, particularly its naval modernisation.  At the Dialogue, for example, the Vietnamese confirmed that their government has purchased six Russian Kilo class submarines at a cost of US$3.2 billion, Thailand is thought to be considering the purchase of second-hand submarines from Germany and even the Filipino navy, which can ill-afford such expensive platforms, is thought to be considering the pursuit of a submarine capability.

It is in the context of this burgeoning Asian arms race that Washington has been seeking to re-establish its presence in the region after years of neglect due to its adventures in the Middle East.  Robert Gates, the U.S. Secretary of Defence, spoke of his concerns regarding the possibility of a clash in the South China Sea unless all parties with an interest in the disputed waters agree on a mechanism with which to settle disputes.  Such clashes, he stated, would not serve anyone’s interests.

Reaffirming the United States’ role as the Asia Pacific’s security guarantor, he promised that the fiscal situation his country finds itself in will not affect its commitments in Asia.  Indeed, he wagered that over the next ten years the “U.S.influence in the region will be as strong or stronger”.  Assuring allies of America’s intentions, he highlighted that Washington continues to invest in stealth aircraft, drones, warships and cyber weapons.  Such capabilities, he argued, are the “most relevant to preserving the security, sovereignty, and freedom of our allies and partners in the region”.

Emphasising U.S.policy in the Asia Pacfic, he noted four “enduring principles” that should provide a framework for co-operation in the region: free commerce, the rule of law, open access to the global commons of sea, air, space “and now, cyberspace”, and peaceful conflict resolution.  The reference to cyberspace seemed particularly pointed given Google’s recent allegations about hacking attacks emanating from China.

Of the U.S.–China relationship, Gates, keen to downplay the notion that China’s rise poses a threat to the region, stated that the relationship currently enjoys “a more positive trajectory”, but remains “underdeveloped”.

In an apparent hedge against China’s increasing assertiveness, however, Gates also announced that the U.S. Navy will establish a new base in Singapore.  While Washington has maintained a facility there, the U.S.plans to permanently station one or two of its new Littoral Combat Ships in Singaporean waters, according to the Singaporean Defence Ministry.  This move is part of “a number of steps toward establishing a defence posture across the Asia-Pacific that is more geographically distributed, operationally resilient and politically sustainable,” outlined Gates.

U.S.military planners are keen to spread their forces more widely across the region in order to make it harder for an adversary to strike a knock-out blow in event of a conflict.  In addition, ongoing political troubles surrounding existing U.S.bases, such as Okinawa, makes spreading its assets around the region particularly attractive to Washington.  Indeed, noting this, some analysts in Australia, most prominently Ross Babbage, have called for U.S.troops to be based in Australia.

It would however, be a mistake to think that the situation in the South China Sea was the only issued considered at the conference.  The Japanese Minister of Defence, for example, spoke about the ongoing earthquake crisis in Japan, while Sergei Ivanov, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, outlined the important of building strategic confidence in the region.  The Malaysian Prime Minister, Najib Razak, echoed this sentiment, highlighting the global trend toward integration and interdependence.  He also framed China’s rise as a cause for optimism rather than trepidation.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons program also merited discussion at the launch of a new book by Jonathan D. Pollack who has concluded that North Korea’s third nuclear test will probably be of a highly enriched uranium (HEU) bomb.  Depressingly, he also believes that neither China nor the United States can stop or reverse the North’s nuclear weapons program.

In conclusion, the primary focus of the Dialogue was on the possibility of future quarrels – and how to deal with them – as Asian powers with rising military budgets continue to contest often potentially resource-rich territory.  All parties agree that confidence building and co-operation is desirable.  What remains to be seen, however, is to what extent such sentiments are reflected in behaviour.  Will China continue to press its claims aggressively?  Will this drive other Asian powers toward America and will an arms race develop in the Asia Pacific as countries attempt to balance China’s rise?

Other issues also continue to exercise analysts.  The aftermath of the Japanese tsunami has crippled Tokyo.  As Prime Minister Kan attempts to bring the situation under control and begin reconstruction, he faces an uphill struggle in the wake of the recent no-confidence motion. North Korea, too, is a continuing cause for concern.  We certainly live in interesting times.

 

 

Singaporean Election Results

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As had been universally predicted before voting commenced in Singapore’s general election, the People’s Action Party (PAP) were returned to power with an overwhelming majority.  The PAP won approximately 60% of the vote and has been awarded with 81 of a possible 87 parliamentary seats. 

Its share of the vote, however, while still handsome, slipped from the approximately 67% share they enjoyed in 2006.  This is evidence of a continuing trend which has seen support for the PAP erode, albeit slowly.

Nevertheless, while the PAP has won comfortably, it has not been a bloodless victory.  Six seats went to the opposition, with the Workers’ Party scoring an eye-catching victory by ejecting the Foreign Minister, George Yeo, from his seat in the Aljunied GRC.  While the Workers’ Party had concentrated its efforts on this GRC, the result still came as a shock to the PAP.

The outcome of this election, however, changes little, as the PAP has the numbers to push through its policies.  No major policy shifts can therefore be expected.  What does seem apparent is that the political scene in Singapore is changing as the electorate begins to question PAP policies and exhibits a burgeoning desire to attempt to balance the party with opposition voices in parliament.

Though the PAP still has a tight hold on the reins of power, this election sets the scene for greater parliamentary debate in Singapore and, if the Workers’ Party can administer Aljunied GRC competently, perhaps a greater willingness among the Singaporean electorate to support opposition parties in the future.

Singaporean Elections: More of the Same, But Different

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As Singapore goes to the polls today, the result is not in doubt.  The People’s Action Party (PAP) will win an overwhelming majority, just as it has in every previous election since the founding of the Republic of Singapore in 1965.  Indeed, it first came to prominence with a landslide victory in elections in 1959, after which it immediately made Singapore a self-governing state within the British Commonwealth.  Lee Kuan Yew, the city state’s long-serving former Prime Minister and current Mentor Minister will once again, at the age of 87, be elected as an MP.  His son, Lee Hsien Loon, will also return for another term as Prime Minister, while many other familiar PAP faces will continue to dominate Singaporean politics for the next five years and, in all probability, beyond.

So, if this election is so predictable, why has it been described by some observers, such as Bridget Walsh, an associate professor of politics at the Singapore Management University, as “arguably the most competitive election in Singapore’s history”?  After all, given that GDP grew at 14.5% last year, despite the financial crisis that buffeted most of the world, and that Singapore enjoys prosperity that is the envy of many countries around the globe, there would seem little to complain about.

 Nevertheless, some issues are stirring Singapore’s 2.2 million voters.  Immigration is becoming an issue, as it is across the developed world, with approximately one third of the Singaporean population being composed of foreigners.  In addition, more prosaic issues such as inflation, which as of March 2011 was reported to be running at 5%, and house prices are also causing some to consider the merits of alternative, smaller parties, six of which are challenging the PAP behemoth in this election.  Young voters, in particular, also seem to be questioning some of the PAP’s hardline policies and seeking to balance the PAP in Parliament.

Many such voters will also be voting for the first time as the PAP is being forced to contest 82 of 87 Parliamentary seats, compared to the 47 of 84 seats they had to compete in, in 2006.  Such factors are combining to ensure that election rallies are well attended, with the main opposition group, the Workers’ Party, claiming to enjoy a turnout of 40,000 at a recent rally.  Such numbers have led some to postulate that this election might be a ‘watershed’ moment in Singaporean politics and that the time for a change has come.  While such enthusiasm may be ill-founded, it does seem that the political arena is shifting somewhat as opposition parties mount direct attacks on the PAP and contest more seats than ever.

Perhaps the strongest evidence that things are changing is that the PAP seems rattled to such an extent that even Lee Kuan Yew has warned voters of the consequences they might face by voting against the PAP, stating that the electorate can expect the PAP to look after PAP constituencies first.  Those constituencies which might dare to vote against the PAP would, in his words, have “five years to live and repent.”  Whether such provocative statements will cause a backlash against the PAP remains to be seen.

 In conclusion, this election has never been about a change of power.  The PAP will win handsomely.  Its vote, however, has shown signs of declining.  For example, it fell from 75.3% to 66.6% between the elections of 2001 and 2006.  If voters award even one Group Representation Constituency (GRC) – a block which can return up to 6 MPs – to an opposition party, this would represent a huge shock to the PAP.  To this end, the Workers’ Party is concentrating its efforts on a solitary GRC, Aljunied, putting up its top representatives as candidates.  If they do win this GRC, they could also evict George Yeo, the foreign minister.  For the first time ever in Singaporean politics, the PAP will have to fight for its seats.