Tag Archives: America

Why America should welcome China’s attempt to spy on RIMPAC

Posted on by Asia Pacific Briefing
Reply

RIMPAC 2014

 

It has recently been reported that China has sent a surveillance vessel to observe the RIMPAC exercise in which Beijing is participating for the first time.

Little open source information is available about the Dongdiao-class (Type 815) intelligence collection/missile range instrumentation ship, but Jane’s has viewed material that suggests the class possesses “high-technology radio signal gathering and processing equipment”.  As part of its formal presence, the PLA-N has sent a missile destroyer, a missile frigate, a supply ship and the Peace Ark hospital ship.

While some have called on China to be banned from participating in future RIMPAC exercises, Washington should welcome Beijing’s clumsy move.  By acknowledging China’s right to conduct electronic surveillance from within Hawaii’s exclusive economic zone and by not attempting to impede it, Washington is supporting a global norm that China has sought to dispute, most notably illustrated by the 2009 incident in which Chinese vessels harassed the USNS Impeccable in international waters.

By not impeding the PLA-N’s surveillance ship, America is making it more difficult for Beijing to obstruct vessels in waters off the Chinese coast.  This will not only strengthen the U.S. position,  but will benefit regional states in Asia which have experienced harassment by Chinese vessels.

Key Trends in 2012

Posted on by Asia Pacific Briefing
1

As we reflect on 2011, it is obvious that it was a year of geopolitical flux, reflected most clearly in the so-called Arab Spring. Asia, however, was also an exciting arena.

The US pivoted its focus from its wars in the Middle East to the increasing challenge posed by China to Washington’s primacy in the Asia Pacific, while December saw the death of Kim Jong Il in North Korea and the succession of his son, Kim Jong Un. Speaking of leadership changes, Vladimir Putin announced that he would seek to return to his former presidential office, while another newly appointed president in Myanmar, Thein Sein, to the surprise of commentators, appeared to open the door to cautious liberalisation.

What, then, can we expect to be the key trends in 2012? While predicting the future is, to paraphrase Hillary Clinton, a fool’s errand, here are a number of issues to keep an eye on in 2012.

1. Look for China to reign in its recent belligerence and return to the smarter diplomacy it pursued up until around 2008. Recent assertiveness has alienated its neighbours and driven them into the welcoming arms of Washington. A diplomatic approach that focuses on building economic links and reassuring neighbours that it does not seek to dominate will be more fruitful that making outrageous claims of sovereignty.

2. Events in Myanmar this year will be telling. Will Aung San Suu Kyi be permitted to compete in fair elections? If she wins, will the result be honoured? How the administration of Thein Sein reacts will indicate how serious the government is about liberalising. A genuine opposition in parliament would be a significant step forward.

3. The U.S. also faces an important year. Look for Romney to win the Republican nomination. After that, all bets are off. Nevertheless, regardless of whether Obama or Romney wins, it is clear that we are now at the end of the post 9/11 age. The U.S. will focus on Asia and strengthening its primacy vis-à-vis China after its costly misadventures in the Middle East.

4. North Korea will continue to occupy the minds of policy makers. As always with the DPRK, there are more questions than answers. Will Kim Jong Un be supported by those around him? Will he be deposed or will he secure his own position? Will Pyongyang continue the belligerent approach highlighted by the sinking of the Cheonan and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, or will it surprise everyone by tackling internal reform as China did under Deng Xiaoping?

5. The 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012 will see a major leadership turnover. Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and Wu Bangguo are all expected to retire, opening the way for the Politburo and its Standing Committee to welcome a large number of new faces. How will these new leaders handle an ever more complex society and what kind of foreign policy will they pursue?

6. Will Indonesia continue to consolidate its democracy or will it falter? Corruption allegations will continue to dismay Indonesians and shape their opinion of politics, while politicians on all sides seem to lack an appetite for reforms that could help Indonesia achieve its considerable potential.

7. How will U.S. and European financial travails affect Asia? The region will also suffer an economic slowdown, but ‘suffer’ may be the wrong word; after all, Beijing’s latest Five Year Plan aims to slow growth. Nevertheless, for a country that continues to rely on exports, continued economic trouble in the West will be a cause for significant concern. As China slows, neighbours such as South Korea and Japan will also suffer. An increase in protectionist sentiment, particularly in the U.S., will lead to much complaining and anti-dumping suits between Washington and Beijing.

8. Expect the balancing of security and economics in the Asia Pacific to become ever more precarious. Most states rely upon the U.S. for their security, while depending upon China for their economic prosperity. Though security typically trumps economics, no one wants to have to pick a side.

9. India can expect further growth, albeit of a slower nature, while its politicians will continue to be cautious, except when pursuing private business interests. Significant and much needed reform is unlikely to be embraced. Growth remains fuelled by domestic demand. A focus on increasing exports would be a significant source of growth and is likely to be pursued. Kashmir will continue to be a problem, but relations with Pakistan may improve, albeit glacially.