At the time of writing, the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, is visiting Beijingin order to meet with Hu Jintao, the Chinese President.

While both sides typically wait until such trips have been concluded before announcing any details, it seems likely that key topics of conversation will include the DPRK’s nuclear program, food shortages, the future leadership role of Kim Jong-un and recent accusations that the North has shared missile technology with Iran.  China, incidentally, has blocked the public release of the U.N. report that makes this claim.

This meeting coincides with the visit to North Korea of U.S. Ambassador Robert King, Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights Issues, and Jon Brause, a representative of the US Agency for International Development, which will see them investigate the DPRK’s reported food shortage and human rights situation.

While the World Food Program has warned of food shortages affecting six million North Koreans, some analysts believe that the situation is not as bad as DPRK officials have suggested and that the Kim government is attempting to stockpile food to prepare for national celebrations in 2012 to celebrate the 100^th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung.  The shortage has been provoked by a number of factors such as heavy rain, a particularly harsh winter and an outbreak of foot and mouth disease.

King and Brause’s trip comes in the wake of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter’s recent remarks accusing the U.S. and South Korea of a “human-rights violation” for refusing food aid.  Valerie Amos, the U.N. Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, has also emphasised the need to base aid on humanitarian requirements, not the political situation in the country.

However, it seems unlikely that South Korea will make a donation given recent events such as the North’s attack on a South Korean warship last year followed by its shelling of Yeonpyeong Island.  In addition, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has also taken a strong stand since winning power in 2008.  Having ended the Sunshine policy of engagement pursued by his predecessor, he will not resume aid until the North abandons its nuclear weapons programme.  The U.S. is more likely to donate food, though it would seek assurances regarding the transparency of the distribution process.

Despite the veil of secrecy obscuring the trip, we do have some idea of Kim’s activities.  Yonhap, the South Korean news agency, has reported that Kim has toured special economic zones in China in an apparent effort by the Chinese to persuade him to adopt a modicum of economic liberalisation. China, fearing a large influx of North Korean refugees should the North collapse, would welcome any policy shift that would promise greater prosperity for North Koreans.

The South Korean President, Lee Myung-bak, meanwhile, has welcomed Kim’s visit, reasoning that such trips give the reclusive North Korean leader an opportunity to learn from China’s development and that such lessons “will bring about changes”.

Any changes, however, can be expected to be gradual and tentative.  In short, no matter what announcements follow this trip, the thinking of the North Korean government is likely to remain opaque as different factions vie for influence.