Tag Archives: North Korea

Key Trends in 2012

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As we reflect on 2011, it is obvious that it was a year of geopolitical flux, reflected most clearly in the so-called Arab Spring. Asia, however, was also an exciting arena.

The US pivoted its focus from its wars in the Middle East to the increasing challenge posed by China to Washington’s primacy in the Asia Pacific, while December saw the death of Kim Jong Il in North Korea and the succession of his son, Kim Jong Un. Speaking of leadership changes, Vladimir Putin announced that he would seek to return to his former presidential office, while another newly appointed president in Myanmar, Thein Sein, to the surprise of commentators, appeared to open the door to cautious liberalisation.

What, then, can we expect to be the key trends in 2012? While predicting the future is, to paraphrase Hillary Clinton, a fool’s errand, here are a number of issues to keep an eye on in 2012.

1. Look for China to reign in its recent belligerence and return to the smarter diplomacy it pursued up until around 2008. Recent assertiveness has alienated its neighbours and driven them into the welcoming arms of Washington. A diplomatic approach that focuses on building economic links and reassuring neighbours that it does not seek to dominate will be more fruitful that making outrageous claims of sovereignty.

2. Events in Myanmar this year will be telling. Will Aung San Suu Kyi be permitted to compete in fair elections? If she wins, will the result be honoured? How the administration of Thein Sein reacts will indicate how serious the government is about liberalising. A genuine opposition in parliament would be a significant step forward.

3. The U.S. also faces an important year. Look for Romney to win the Republican nomination. After that, all bets are off. Nevertheless, regardless of whether Obama or Romney wins, it is clear that we are now at the end of the post 9/11 age. The U.S. will focus on Asia and strengthening its primacy vis-à-vis China after its costly misadventures in the Middle East.

4. North Korea will continue to occupy the minds of policy makers. As always with the DPRK, there are more questions than answers. Will Kim Jong Un be supported by those around him? Will he be deposed or will he secure his own position? Will Pyongyang continue the belligerent approach highlighted by the sinking of the Cheonan and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, or will it surprise everyone by tackling internal reform as China did under Deng Xiaoping?

5. The 18th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012 will see a major leadership turnover. Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and Wu Bangguo are all expected to retire, opening the way for the Politburo and its Standing Committee to welcome a large number of new faces. How will these new leaders handle an ever more complex society and what kind of foreign policy will they pursue?

6. Will Indonesia continue to consolidate its democracy or will it falter? Corruption allegations will continue to dismay Indonesians and shape their opinion of politics, while politicians on all sides seem to lack an appetite for reforms that could help Indonesia achieve its considerable potential.

7. How will U.S. and European financial travails affect Asia? The region will also suffer an economic slowdown, but ‘suffer’ may be the wrong word; after all, Beijing’s latest Five Year Plan aims to slow growth. Nevertheless, for a country that continues to rely on exports, continued economic trouble in the West will be a cause for significant concern. As China slows, neighbours such as South Korea and Japan will also suffer. An increase in protectionist sentiment, particularly in the U.S., will lead to much complaining and anti-dumping suits between Washington and Beijing.

8. Expect the balancing of security and economics in the Asia Pacific to become ever more precarious. Most states rely upon the U.S. for their security, while depending upon China for their economic prosperity. Though security typically trumps economics, no one wants to have to pick a side.

9. India can expect further growth, albeit of a slower nature, while its politicians will continue to be cautious, except when pursuing private business interests. Significant and much needed reform is unlikely to be embraced. Growth remains fuelled by domestic demand. A focus on increasing exports would be a significant source of growth and is likely to be pursued. Kashmir will continue to be a problem, but relations with Pakistan may improve, albeit glacially.

South Korea to Deploy Apache Gunships to Baengnyeong Island?

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An anonymous defence source has suggested South Korea will deploy Apache gunships to Baengnyeong Island

 

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency has reported that the country is considering the deployment of Apache gunships to Baengnyeong Island.  A hangar is currently under construction in preparation for the arrival of the helicopters.

Yonhap quotes an anonymous defence source who claims the deployment is intended to counter the possibility of a seaborne attack by DPRK commandos.  The North’s construction of a larger-than-expected naval base in Hwanghae Province has prompted these concerns. The base, situated a mere 50 kilometres from Baengnyeong Island, is thought to be capable of supporting around 60 hovercraft.

The helicopter hangar currently under construction is expected to be completed by the end of the year and will be ready to accommodate the gunships which are expected to be delivered in 2012.  South Korea is expected to purchase thirty-six Apaches in October 2012.

This move comes in the wake of the North’s shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in November 2010.  It seems that South Korea is making sure that Baengnyeong Island, located to the west of Yeonpyeong, has some teeth in case the North decides to push its luck again.

Kim Jong-il Visits Beijing

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At the time of writing, the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, is visiting Beijingin order to meet with Hu Jintao, the Chinese President.

While both sides typically wait until such trips have been concluded before announcing any details, it seems likely that key topics of conversation will include the DPRK’s nuclear program, food shortages, the future leadership role of Kim Jong-un and recent accusations that the North has shared missile technology with Iran.  China, incidentally, has blocked the public release of the U.N. report that makes this claim.

This meeting coincides with the visit to North Korea of U.S. Ambassador Robert King, Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights Issues, and Jon Brause, a representative of the US Agency for International Development, which will see them investigate the DPRK’s reported food shortage and human rights situation.

While the World Food Program has warned of food shortages affecting six million North Koreans, some analysts believe that the situation is not as bad as DPRK officials have suggested and that the Kim government is attempting to stockpile food to prepare for national celebrations in 2012 to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung.  The shortage has been provoked by a number of factors such as heavy rain, a particularly harsh winter and an outbreak of foot and mouth disease.

King and Brause’s trip comes in the wake of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter’s recent remarks accusing the U.S. and South Korea of a “human-rights violation” for refusing food aid.  Valerie Amos, the U.N. Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, has also emphasised the need to base aid on humanitarian requirements, not the political situation in the country.

However, it seems unlikely that South Korea will make a donation given recent events such as the North’s attack on a South Korean warship last year followed by its shelling of Yeonpyeong Island.  In addition, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has also taken a strong stand since winning power in 2008.  Having ended the Sunshine policy of engagement pursued by his predecessor, he will not resume aid until the North abandons its nuclear weapons programme.  The U.S. is more likely to donate food, though it would seek assurances regarding the transparency of the distribution process.

Despite the veil of secrecy obscuring the trip, we do have some idea of Kim’s activities.  Yonhap, the South Korean news agency, has reported that Kim has toured special economic zones in China in an apparent effort by the Chinese to persuade him to adopt a modicum of economic liberalisation. China, fearing a large influx of North Korean refugees should the North collapse, would welcome any policy shift that would promise greater prosperity for North Koreans.

The South Korean President, Lee Myung-bak, meanwhile, has welcomed Kim’s visit, reasoning that such trips give the reclusive North Korean leader an opportunity to learn from China’s development and that such lessons “will bring about changes”.

Any changes, however, can be expected to be gradual and tentative.  In short, no matter what announcements follow this trip, the thinking of the North Korean government is likely to remain opaque as different factions vie for influence.