Xi Jinping has not been seen in public for over one week

China is currently buzzing with rumours about the status of Xi Jinping, China’s president-to-be.  Xi has been missing from the public eye for over one week and has missed scheduled meetings with figures such as Hillary Clinton and Singapore’s Lee Hsien Loong.

In the absence of official confirmation of his status, the China internet has lit up with conspiracy theories and conjecture.  Various explanations have been offered by netizens – some have claimed he has injured himself swimming, others have suggested that he may have suffered a heart-attack, while more imaginative contributors have pondered whether he may have been the victim of a car crash engineered by conspirators sympathetic to Bo Xilai, the ousted Chongqing Party Secretary.

While it remains unclear what fate has befallen Xi – one assumes and hopes that he is merely under the weather – the response to his unexplained disappearance reveals a number of things about modern China.

The first and most obvious is that ordinary Chinese are able to follow the politics of their country more closely than in the past.  While the authorities have tried to block web searches using Xi’s name, Chinese internet users have easily circumvented such attempts by using terms such as Crown Prince to refer to their future leader.

The CCP’s response is also revealing.  Its instinct has been to clam up and refrain from revealing the reason for Xi’s sudden disappearance.  Given that I assume he has not been purged and is instead recuperating from some kind of injury or illness, this illustrates that for all the Party seeks to portray itself as capable of modern governance, it remains, at heart, the suspicious, paranoid organisation it has been since it formed.  Its early days as an underground, secretive organisation influence its instincts today, even after 60 years of continuous rule.

The response of Chinese netizens is also illustrative of how quickly ordinary Chinese embrace rumours.  This can readily be explained by the lack of transparent governance in China.  Had a government spokesperson simply made a statement to the effect that Xi is unwell but expects to return to public life soon, the situation would not have exploded into rumour and innuendo.  Given the government response to the SARS outbreak, Sanlu milk scandal, and even reports about pollution levels, however, ordinary citizens simply assume that it is being economical with the truth.

I expect Xi to surface fairly soon, but the government response to his absence has placed further pressure on the leadership transition later this year.  Whatever has happened to Xi, it seems safe to assume that this will not be the last incident to throw the Politburo into a spin before the transition takes place.